Sunshine Coast Races Sunday October 2 full analysis of nine race maps with tips and insights
Nine races with good depth make for a tough meeting and I trust some Saturday performers early in their preparations.
There are forecasts of rain but the track should be no worse than soft and with the rail out 3m all horses will have a chance.
BEST BET: STAR GAMBLE (Race 6 No 7)
NEXT BEST: CITIZEN OF THE WORLD (Race 3 No 2)
VALUE BET: TICINO BELLE (Race 9 No 14)
Race 6: 1.5.7
Stroke 7: 1.6
Race 8: 7,8,10
Race 9: 2,3,4,14
Race 1- Maiden Handicap 1200m
Locals usually make Sunday their day and Billy Healey can kick things off with BRONZE DRAGON (2) who was delayed on the turnaround but made good ground in the rematch at Doomben over 1050m. Placed at five of the six exits, it lags behind, but this larger track and longer distance suits. Ryan Maloney stays and he has his chance to break through.
Barry Lockwood has taken over the formation of BIG SHORT (3) which has shown promise with Chris Waller making it to three of seven NSW starts. He might like longer, but a big track will suit him and his recent test win was promising. He has a habit of doing things the wrong way, but with Jim Orman out front, he’ll get all the favors.
VIRGO VISION (4) is another who is late but ran a practice one on Pillage’s last tight start and only has to repeat that effort to be on the finish again.
Annabel Neasham has a good strike rate and although ALAMIRA (14) couldn’t beat a runner at home in Canterbury on a heavy track on her last outing, she will find things more to her liking here and where she belongs for his debut behind Scorch had merit.
Verdict- BRONZE DRAGON (2) seizes his opportunity.
Race 2 – Maiden Handicap 1200m
Barry Lockwood has an excellent record with releases and LORD VINNIE (2) had a few homes before making his debut. The four-year-old I Am Invincible has had his issues but is a half-brother to Group 1 winner I Am Excited and Group 3 winner Flippant and has shown he has inherited some of the ability family with a recent dominant victory in the trial. If he runs to that, he will beat them.
Bookmaker pal OUTBACK PLAYBOY (17) broke his promise but had an excuse at the last start when he was forced to travel far throughout. A good door helps and he has the speed to be prominent.
FASOLIA (5) was previously with Michael Costa and is now under the guardianship of Annabel Neasham. It showed promise in its first preparation and recent trials have been encouraging. Right from the draw with Sam Collett, she could provide insight.
HUMOR ME (15) was beaten over 860m at Gatton but this track is more suited and she has the speed to get through a wide gate. The visors replace the indicators and it will be put forward.
Verdict – I expect a market move for LORD VINNIE (2).
Race 3- Class 5 Handicap 1000m
The heavy track and the slowness of the getaway condemned GLOBAL CITIZEN (2) during the recovery. He’ll find things much more to his liking here and with blinders on Michael Cahill can take full advantage of the aces draw.
CECIL STREET LAD (1) took them down to win a Class 4 here in the final start and won two of four starts in this build. It’s harder but a small field and probably a strong speed combination.
Stuart Kendrick doesn’t miss often and MAXIMUM OUTPUT (3) has a great track record at this track and this distance. He’s been up for a while but raced competitively in the Saturday class and will find that endeavor easier.
THE HERO (5) would prefer longer but has a good debut record, winks and loves this track.
Verdict – GLOBAL CITIZEN (2) has the opportunity to bounce back.
Race 4- Maiden Handicap 1800m
In search of one with less conviction and PSYCHIC ROSE (12) trained by Lee Freedman made a good debut here when he was beaten by a length by Nightcap de Nippa over 1600m. She was hitting the line hard there and that extra distance can help. Sam Collett stays, draws no work, and may be the one with the upper hand.
STRUAN LAD (3) is another who has come a long way to just miss the standings at the last start here over 1600m, more fit for three outings this time this distance may be fine and a positive run from Matt Powell may have him at the arrival.
Stuart Kendrick has given PETRILLO (1) more than enough chances but he will break through one day and this move may be his optimum. He’s at a pace, but Jasmine Cornish’s claim is helping and with blinkers back he’ll continue to plod along on the business side.
SOOPURB DANCER’s (6) best two runs were when he advanced and led. It was only pasted at the end of the last start and during the trip another similar audacious effort might have it in the frame.
Verdict- Ordinary run and I’ll have something on PSYCHIC ROSE (12).
Race 5- Class 2 Handicap 1800m
Bevan Laming brings DIASONIC (1) back to the pit after racing to miss just over 1600m here on the last start, he doesn’t win out of turn but a better gate and longer trip may help. Craig Robertson stays and has the chance to redeem himself.
MASTER MARKO (2) has had a lot of runs but has now changed stables to Paul Jenkins. He worked too hard early and didn’t pass out until late on the last Saturday in and won’t care about this trip. With Ryan Maloney he could push forward and be hard to pass.
LETHAL WARNING (5) was never likely after being hampered by jumping at Doomben when recovering from a slack, but his best runs have been on bigger tracks. He can relax here and Ben Thompson will have him hitting the line.
YANGARI (3) took time to break through but is now back to back. He was too good on this trip here at the last start, carries the same weight and Jim Orman stays. It’s more difficult but he can box again and a hat-trick wouldn’t be surprising.
Verdict – A positive ride can bring DIASONIC (1) home.
Race 6- Benchmark 68 Handicap 1200m
I play forward with STAR GAMBLE (7) who is a promising guy who scored in the last three-year-old company preparation of good Saturday. He had a try, maybe better than this class and Jim Orman is Kelly Schweida’s go-to man.
THE GENERAL (1) found Lord Markel far too good last week but the winks continue and a bigger lead can help. He gives them all the weight and the places more than the wins, but from a good gate with Brodie Loy it will be difficult to pass.
Jack Bruce took over the formation of OCEAN EMPEROR (5) who showed promise last preparation after joining Michael Costa. He only fought at Eagle Farm on the rematch in a strong Benchmark 65 but got better.
POETIC CHOICE (4) led and held strong on Kilcoy’s final start. It’s harder, but with a 3kg claim for Melea Castle and Gate One, it could put on a show.
Verdict- Trust STAR GAMBLE (7) to be ready.
Race 7- Class 1 Handicap 1200m
There is promise in SCRIPT WRITER (1) which is just lacking when covering a heavy track and which should be improved. He won only once in eight starts, but finished in the top four in all but one. He has speed and with Steph Thornton remaining he can make his own luck.
TRANQUIL BAY (6) made good ground when he finished second here by picking up and having his first start for Rob Heathcote. His Victorian form was sound and Ben Thompson can overcome the wide gate.
METAL ROCK (3) came from the North after winning his Maiden on the synthetic in Ballarat. He didn’t show up at a recent trial, but Kelly Schweida doesn’t put Jim Orman on for nothing.
NOT ANOTHER (5) struggled to break through but will be important and is consistently around the money.
Verdict – SCRIPT WRITER (1) has more advantages than others.
Race 8- Benchmark 80 Handicap 1400m
Billy Healey could have a good day with WOLF MOON (7) who has won three of four starts here and is undefeated in second. He disappointed during the recovery in Doomben but loses 4 kg, loves this trip and Sam Collett can save him trouble.
AWESOME LAD (8) struggled to break through and couldn’t beat Command King here last week. He loses 4.5kg and a positive run will get him in the picture again.
LEMON DUCHESS (10) has been in rare form this preparation and won his only previous start here on this trip. With Jasmine Cornish’s 1.5kg claim, she can restore her sight.
HARLEQUIN FIELD (4) has found the Gold Coast track heavy beyond his last start but is better suited here and will get a positive run from Brodie Loy.
Verdict- WOLF MOON (7) can shine on his favorite track.
Race 9- Benchmark 0-58 Handicap 1400m
None of these win in turn and there may be value for TICINO BELLE (14) who set on this journey in stronger company four starts back and cleared that with a recent Gympie victory . Some of his best efforts have come on this track and Sam Collett will have him in a prime spot.
A victory in 21 starts says it all, but PERFECT QUALITY (2) just missed out in a much tougher race than this last start and placed in five of the seven outings of this preparation. The gate tests but he won’t encounter a much weaker field and Jag Guthmann-Chester could go ahead and take luck out of the equation.
AGENT OF MAYHEM (3) finished best to win this trip here last start. Back-to-back wins would come as a surprise, but he has the best recent form on the pitch and Micheal Hellyer can run him.
PERNELL (4) disappoints most often and was never likely on the replay at Gatton but this bigger tracksuit and he’s won here before. He encounters a weak field here and with blinders coming back on Larry Cassidy, he could get him to hit the line.
Verdict- A raffle but I will take a ticket on TICINO BELLE (14).
Originally published as Sunshine Coast Sunday: Graeme Carey gives his full analysis with preview and tips for Sunday’s nine-race card